Who will win the next Australian election?

The average result in our forecast has the Coalition winning 8 more seats than the ALP at the next election resulting in an minority government.

Our forecast accounts for uncertainty in opinion polling and predicts the likelihood of a range of possible outcomes. At the moment, there is an 80% chance that the result of the election is somewhere between the ALP winning 11 more seats than the Coalition and the Coalition winning 26 more seats than the ALP. We expect this range to get smaller as we approach election day.

Here’s how the chances of the different outcomes have changed recently and what we forecast they will be before election day.

Our most likely forecast has the Coalition winning 69 seats, the ALP winning 64 seats, and 18 MPs sitting on the crossbench resulting in a minority government.

While that is the most likely outcome, our forecast indicates the ALP has a 4.6% chance to win 76 or more seats and form majority government. Likewise, the Coalition has a 25.4% chance to form majority government. We predict there is a 70.1% chance neither party win 76 or more seats resulting in a minority government.

Here’s how the number of seats we expect the ALP and Coalition to win have changed recently and what we forecast they will be before election day.

Our mean forecast has the ALP losing the national two-party preferred vote 49.8% to 50.2%.

Our forecast incorporates uncertainty from public opinion polling and produces a range of possible outcomes. At the moment, there is an 80% chance the national two-party preferred vote will be between the ALP losing 48.5% to 51.5% and the ALP losing 51.2% to 48.8%. We expect this range to narrow as we get closer to election day.

Here’s how the two-party preferred vote has changed recently and what we forecast it will be before election day.